An Ensemble Seasonal Forecast of Human Cases of St. Louis Encephalitis in Florida Based on Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasts

We present a method for the ensemble seasonal prediction of human St. Louis encephalitis (SLE) incidence and SLE virus transmission in Florida. We combine empirical relationships between modeled land surface wetness and the incidence of human clinical cases of SLE and modeled land surface wetness and the occurrence of SLE virus transmission throughout south Florida with a previously developed method for generating ensemble, seasonal hydrologic forecasts. Retrospective seasonal forecasts of human SLE incidence are made for Indian River County, Florida, and forecast skill is demonstrated for 2–4 months. A sample seasonal forecast of human SLE incidence is presented. This study establishes the skill of a potential component of an operational SLE forecast system in south Florida, one that provides information well in advance of transmission and may enable early interventions that reduce transmission. Future development of this method and operational application of these forecasts are discussed. The methodology also will be applied to West Nile virus monitoring and forecasting.